The ripples from a new American president are far-reaching,
but never before has the arrival of a White House administration placed
the livability of Earth at stake. Beyond his bluster and crude taunts,
Donald Trump’s climate denialism could prove to be the lasting imprint
of his unexpected presidency.
“A Trump presidency might be game over for the climate,”
said Michael Mann, a prominent climate researcher. “It might make it
impossible to stabilize planetary warming below dangerous levels.”
ADVERTISING
Kevin Trenberth, senior scientist at the US National Center
for Atmospheric Research, added: “This is an unmitigated disaster for
the planet.”
Trump has vowed to sweep away the climate framework
painstakingly built over Barack Obama’s two terms. At risk is the Paris
climate accord, which only came into force last week, and Obama’s linchpin emissions reduction policy, the Clean Power Plan.
At a pivotal moment when the planet’s nations have belatedly
banded together to confront an existential threat, a political novice
who calls global warming a “bullshit” Chinese-invented hoax is taking the helm at the world’s foremost superpower.
“Millions of Americans voted for a coal-loving climate
denier willing to condemn people around the globe to poverty, famine and
death from climate change,” said Benjamin Schreiber, climate director
at Friends of the Earth US. “It seems undeniable that the United States will become a rogue state on climate change.”
US conservatives are already rubbing their hands in glee at
the prospect of a bonfire of regulation. Trump wants the US to exit the
Paris deal, which commits nations to keeping the global temperature
rise below a 2C threshold, potentially setting off a cataclysmic domino
effect where other countries also drop out or ease off efforts to
decarbonize. The 2C limit, which was already a stern challenge, now appears perilous.
Current Time 0:00
/
Duration Time 10:49
Loaded: 0%
Progress: 0%
The Clean Power Plan, the main tool to cut American emissions, is also targeted for elimination, along with billions of dollars in clean energy funding. Republicans will also turn off the tap of aid flowing to developing nations already struggling with climate change-driven sea level rise, heatwaves and drought.
Bitterly contested fossil fuel projects such as the Keystone development and the Dakota Access pipeline,
which has caused unprecedented uproar among native American tribes,
would likely be waved through, with Trump promising to “lift the
Obama-Clinton roadblocks to allow these vital energy infrastructure
projects to go ahead”.
Environmentalists are already aghast at Trump’s presidential preparations. He has appointed
Myron Ebell, director at a conservative thinktank, to oversee
transition plans for the Environmental Protection Agency, which Trump
has casually earmarked for abolition. Ebell has said global warming is
“nothing to worry about” and that the Clean Power Plan is “illegal”.
Shortlists drawn up for key Trump administration posts have
also raised alarm. Oil billionaire Harold Hamm is being touted as energy
secretary, while former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin could
make a stunning comeback as interior secretary, putting her in charge of
US public lands, including treasures such as Yellowstone and Yosemite
national parks. Palin is an enthusiastic proponent of oil and gas
drilling, describing the fossil fuels as “things that God has dumped on this part of the Earth for mankind’s use”.
Republicans have already used Congressional committees to hound
climate scientists and green groups and this badgering may escalate
once climate denial is official White House doctrine. It’s understood
that scientists at Nasa are already bracing themselves for cuts to
climate research programs.
Predicting Trump’s plans, however, largely relies upon
reading the runes from his discursive policy speeches, which regularly
dissolved into vituperative diatribes while on the campaign trail.
At the heart of his energy and climate thinking is an “America first” policy
where “draconian climate rules” are repealed and the US escalates its
production of coal, oil and natural gas. In May, Trump sported a coal
miner’s helmet at a rally in West Virginia, a state with a long history
of mining, to underscore his message that the “war on coal” is over and
that jobs will flow back to the stricken industry.
“Under my administration,” Trump said, “we’ll accomplish
complete American energy independence. Complete. Imagine a world in
which our foes, and the oil cartels, can no longer use energy as a
weapon. It will happen. We’re going to win.”
These bromides to American industrial strength helped propel
Trump to the White House but aren’t tethered to reality. US coal
production slumped 10% last year, with mining jobs shrinking by 12%. Over the same 12-month period, the US oil industry lost
$67bn. These woes have been caused by market forces, rather than
onerous regulation, and even Trump’s authoritarianism doesn’t extend far
enough to change that.
“As president, Donald Trump
will pretend climate change does not exist,” said Prof Tom Lyon of the
University of Michigan’s business school. “This is an increasingly
untenable position, even for committed climate skeptics.
“His energy policy will encourage investment in high-carbon
energy sources that will look foolish in retrospect. And he will anger
much of the rest of the world by reneging on policies designed to
address global challenges.”
US greenhouse gas emissions have started to taper off in
recent years but a Trump presidency would see a resurgence, with an
analysis by Lux Research finding that carbon dioxide output would be 16% higher than the current trajectory should the real estate magnate complete a second term.
This would give the world a hefty shove towards climate
disaster and fatally wound the US’s reputation as a global leader.
Should other major emitters such as China, India and the European Union
fail to make compensatory emissions cuts the planet will likely spiral
into runaway climate change where tens of millions of people are
displaced by rising seas, food insecurity and conflict, leading to an
unprecedented international humanitarian disaster.
Major US cities including New York, Miami and Boston would
face inundation. California, already suffering its worst dry spell in
1,200 years, may stage ‘megadroughts’ that last 20 or even 30 years. The Pentagon has warned climate change poses a “threat multiplier” to US national security, to hoots of derision from Republicans.
The shift to a low-carbon economy already has its own
momentum, however, with the cost of solar and wind power tumbling in
recent years. Nearly 100 coal power plants were retired in 2015, with
renewables accounting for two-thirds of all new electricity generation.
New York and California both have their own ambitious emission reduction plans, conservative states such as Iowa are embracing
wind energy, and innovations from companies such as Tesla, in solar
panels and battery storage, are being snapped up by homeowners.
Trumpian interference can only do so much to slow this
trend, although plodding progress isn’t enough to stave off climate
catastrophe. The UN has warned
that global emissions must peak by 2020 and then be sharply reduced in
order to avoid the worst. This shrinking window risks being clouded
entirely if the US is to choke itself, and the rest of the world, on its
fumes.
Stunned environment groups, faced with triumphant climate
denialism in all branches of government, are trying to muster defiance.
“This could be devastating for our climate and our future,” admitted
Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club. “But Trump must
choose wisely or we guarantee him the hardest fight of his political
life. We won’t be in a defensive crouch for the next four years, licking
our wounds.
Advertisement
“If
he tries to go backwards on climate change he’ll run headlong into an
organized mass of people who will fight him in the courts, in Congress
and on the streets.”
Others are more conciliatory, with former vice president Al
Gore proffering an olive branch along with an enormous dollop of
optimism. “Last night President-elect Trump said he wanted to be a
president for all Americans,” Gore said on Wednesday. “In that spirit, I
hope that he will work with the overwhelming majority of us who believe
that the climate crisis is the greatest threat we face as a nation.”
Whether or not Trump becomes a belated convert to the
reality of climate change, the physics of global warming remain
unchanged.
2016 will be the warmest year on record, beating a mark set only last year. These extremes, where India experiences a temperature of 51C (123F) and the Arctic is robbed of almost all of its winter snowfall, are set to become the norm within a decade. American citizens, from Alaska to Louisiana, are already being uprooted due to the rising seas, a situation that will become commonplace.
Trump knows enough of the gargantuan shifts underway to build a seawall for his golf course in County Clare, Ireland. His Mar-a-Lago club in Florida may have to be next. Whether he extends his concern from beyond his own business interests to the rest of the world remains to be seen.
This mailing list is a private mailing list. There may be additional steps in order to join,
and the List Owner controls who may leave the mailing list.
This mailing list is a group discussion list
(unmoderated)